Where Would You Run?

OK, time for a little fun. I've been thinking about this since it was posted:

It got a lot of pushback, and for good reason! Things are bad on the democracy front right now in America and could easily get worse, but the odds of them getting worse in any of the specific ways that would require normal citizens to flee the country are pretty low.

Another problem is that "having a plan" in a realistic sense probably means working towards dual citizenship with your future democratic home, including spending most of your spare money and vacation time living there to meet residency requirements. "Foreign bank account and a travel agent on speed dial" isn't going to cut it if millions of refugees suddenly start fleeing the United States and the destination countries start turning people away.

But on the other hand, this is basically an invitation to engage in some disaster porn + travel planning, which I'm happy to do! Basically the appeal of a zombie movie, but without the danger of being eaten.

Evaluation Criteria

So with that in mind, where would I take my family, if it became necessary to leave the country in a hurry? The tweet's criteria were for a democratic country where you speak the language, which seems like a good start. Other than that, there are a few other things worth considering:

• Do I know anyone there?
• Would I (and my family) be able to work there?
• Would I enjoy living there? (For me, this is basically asking if there are livable cities)
• Do they support dual citizenship with the United States?
• How strict are the residency/citizenship requirements?
• How plausible would it be for me to pack up and move there (catch-all category for everything not covered above, including housing costs, cultural barriers, and entry restrictions)?

With these in mind, let's run through our contenders:

Taiwan

I think we all know where this is going, but it's such an obvious choice it's worth going through the exercise anyway.

Pros

Taiwan has a stable democratic government, both my wife and I speak the language, there's awesome urbanism in Taipei and the country is, on the whole, extremely friendly. I have a bunch of old friends there that would be happy to help me get settled; I have more friends there than at any other possible destination. I've been there before and I loved it. It's very close to Mainland China, too, which would make it easy to visit the in-laws or for them to visit us, if the politics allowed...which unfortunately they won't, which brings us to:

Cons

It's almost certainly going to be invaded by China! In the extremely unlikely event that American democracy collapses into a weird America First authoritarian state, then there's basically nothing stopping China from taking over Taiwan, which they would be thrilled to do. Oh well! Even without needing to flee the country, if the situation in Taiwan were more stable I'd seriously consider moving there, it's a really amazing place.

I'm not sure about the work situation or residency requirements, but since we've already disqualified it from contention I'm not going to bother to look all that up.

Singapore

Pros

My wife and I have both been to Singapore (separately) and loved it. It's a great, well-run urbanist sort of place with excellent school and health care systems. My current employer has an engineering office there, so I could plausibly ask for a transfer, which would probably help with the visa considerations as well. Other perks: it's got great food, public transportation, and it's close to plenty of places like Malaysia and Thailand that I'd love to be able to visit regularly.

Cons

It's sort of a democracy, close enough that it doesn't get eliminated off the bat but authoritarian enough that it kind of negates a lot of what I'd be hoping to gain by running away from America in the first place. A more plausible authoritarian turn for America, in which President Trump spends his second term using the power of the state to harass journalists who gave him unfavorable coverage the first time around, would be in many ways closer to present-day Singapore than to Stalinist Russia.

Housing is also extremely expensive, with non-permanent residents limited in what they're allowed to buy. The culture would be a bit of a shift for us, as well.

Japan

Pros

It's Japan! They do cities better than anywhere else on Earth, it's a fantastic culture, they have a stable democracy that's become much more welcoming of immigrants in recent years, and it's a rich, prosperous country with solid education and health systems. Really, who wouldn't want to live there?

Cons

None of us speak Japanese, and it's getting a bit late in life to easily learn a new language more or less from scratch. I might be able to swing a remote job, possibly even leverage my current job to help with the visa process since it's within their global footprint, but that's all a bit iffy and if I end up looking for a job locally, it'd mean taking a large pay cut. It would also mean dealing with Japanese work culture, which really doesn't seem fun.

Australia

And finally, our winner! Let's learn about our new home in exile:

Pros

Culturally similar enough to the U.S. that it would be a pretty smooth move. Nice, modern democracy with a respectable welfare state. Supports dual citizenship with a reasonable path to citizenship. One of my wife's best friends lives in Melbourne, and I know a few people as well--not enough to really have a community to welcome us, but much better than Singapore or Japan where we don't know anyone.

Another great benefit is that my company has an engineering office in Melbourne, and I already work directly with a bunch of the people there; they're great! Not only would it be pretty easy to request a transfer there, it would be a pleasure to work out of that office.

Cons

Australia is extremely far from everything. That has benefits if we're witnessing the collapse of the world order, but at some point things will settle down again and we'd be at least a 15 hour flight away from anyone we might want to visit. Also, if I switch jobs between now and the collapse of the American state, that could complicate things, but the language and cultural similarities ought to make it relatively easy to find a job I'd be happy with. It's possible, though, that without the current connection that I happen to have, finding a job that would sponsor me for a visa might prove hard enough that we'd have to fall back to Japan, where the newly relaxed immigration policies would make it easier to solve this particular problem.

What makes this whole exercise a drag is that going through the list of possible destinations really drives home just how large and rich a country the United States is. Most of the world's other democracies are tiny by comparison, and they all have a lower per capita GDP than we do.